Results

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At G Ratings, we conducted a statewide survey to measure electoral preferences and Pennsylvania’s political climate ahead of the November 2026 general election.

The results show Josh Shapiro holding a commanding advantage over Stacy Garrity in the gubernatorial race. The survey also finds that economic conditions and the state of democracy are the two leading concerns among Pennsylvania voters.

We surveyed 800 registered Pennsylvania voters between August 9 and August 13, 2026. Participants confirmed that they intended to vote in the upcoming election.

Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity by 23.3 points

When respondents were asked whom they would support if the Pennsylvania gubernatorial election were held today, Josh Shapiro received 53.8% of voter preference.

The results were:

1. Josh Shapiro, Democratic: 53.8%
2. Stacy Garrity, Republican: 30.5%
3. Another candidate or none: 15.2%

Shapiro leads Garrity by 23.3 percentage points and is the only candidate in the measured contest to exceed the 50% threshold.

However, 15.2% of respondents selected another candidate or no candidate. This segment remains significant and could influence campaign strategies as the election approaches.

The results give Shapiro a clear advantage at this stage of the race, while Garrity faces the challenge of expanding her support beyond the Republican base and attracting voters who have not selected either major candidate.

The economy is Pennsylvania voters’ top concern

At G Ratings, we presented respondents with a list of major issues and asked them to identify the most important challenge facing Pennsylvania.

The economy ranked first:

1. Economy, including jobs, inflation, and taxes: 30.8%
2. State of democracy: 20.5%
3. Immigration: 12.4%
4. Something else: 8.5%
5. Crime: 8.1%
6. Abortion access: 7.5%
7. Healthcare: 6.5%
8. Education: 3.5%
9. Foreign policy: 1.8%

Economic concerns received the highest percentage of responses, placing jobs, inflation, and taxes at the center of Pennsylvania’s political debate.

The state of democracy ranked second with 20.5%, indicating that institutional stability, electoral processes, and the direction of government are also important considerations for voters.

Together, the economy and the state of democracy account for 51.3% of responses. This means more than half of the voters surveyed selected one of these two issues as Pennsylvania’s most important challenge.

Immigration ranked third with 12.4%, while crime, abortion access, and healthcare registered single-digit percentages.

Democrats represent the largest political group in the sample

When participants were asked about their political affiliation, Democrats accounted for the largest share of respondents.

The results were:

1. Democratic: 41.2%
2. Republican: 35.8%
3. Independent or other: 22.5%

Democrats outnumber Republicans by 5.4 percentage points. Independent and other voters represent more than one-fifth of the sample and could play an important role in the gubernatorial election.

The size of this unaffiliated segment highlights the importance of campaign messages directed beyond traditional party supporters.

Demographic profile of respondents

The survey included Pennsylvania voters from different gender, age, and ethnic groups.

The gender distribution was:

1. Female: 50.7%
2. Male: 45.9%
3. Other: 3.5%

The age distribution was:

1. 18 to 29 years: 12.5%
2. 30 to 39 years: 14.7%
3. 40 to 49 years: 20.8%
4. 50 to 59 years: 19.8%
5. 60 to 69 years: 21.5%
6. 70 years or older: 10.7%

The ethnic distribution was:

1. White or Caucasian: 73.8%
2. Black or African American: 10.8%
3. Hispanic or Latino: 8.2%
4. Other or multiple races: 5.4%
5. Asian: 1.5%

Minor differences in total percentages may occur because of rounding.

Survey methodology

At G Ratings, we conducted the fieldwork from August 9 through August 13, 2026, using self-administered digital questionnaires accessible on mobile devices and computers.

We surveyed 800 Pennsylvania residents aged 18 or older who confirmed that they were registered to vote and intended to participate in the upcoming election.

The study used a non-probability sampling design balanced by relevant demographic and geographic variables, including gender, age group, region, education level, and ethnicity.

The data collection process employed Odysseus, a technological platform developed by G Ratings by GobernArte S.C. The platform incorporates algorithmic models and Artificial intelligence tools to maintain a distribution consistent with reference population parameters.

Quality controls were implemented during fieldwork to validate response consistency and exclude incomplete or atypical questionnaires.

For a sample of 800 completed questionnaires, the theoretical margin of error is estimated between ±3.5% and ±5%, assuming a 95% confidence level and simple random sampling. Because the study used a non-probability design, this range should be interpreted as an approximate statistical reference rather than an exact estimate of total study error.

The questionnaire completion rate was approximately 50% among eligible individuals who began the digital survey.

G Ratings used Pennsylvania voter registration data to compare the party registration of respondents in the sample with statewide registration figures.

At G Ratings, we present these findings exclusively for informational and public opinion research purposes. The survey was commissioned, conducted, funded, and analyzed by G Ratings. It was not commissioned or funded by any candidate, political campaign, or political party.